By Samkele Mchunu
South African Parties Prepare for Coalition Talks as ANC Faces Historic Fall Below 50%
South African political parties are gearing up for coalition discussions following a historic decline in support for the governing African National Congress (ANC). For the first time in 30 years of democracy, the ANC is projected to fall well short of a majority, marking a significant shift in the country’s political landscape.
While the party of the late Nelson Mandela is expected to remain the largest political force, preliminary results indicate a substantial drop in voter support. With 57.3% of polling stations reporting, the ANC had garnered only 41.9% of votes, a sharp decline from the 57.5% it achieved in the 2019 national elections.
The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) has secured second place with 23.4% of the vote. A new party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), led by former president Jacob Zuma, is capturing 11.3% of the vote, significantly impacting ANC support, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s home province. MK has surpassed the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which holds 9.5%.
“I think it’s a very good day for South Africa. We said for the last 30 years the way to rescue South Africa was to break the ANC majority. We’ve done that,” DA leader John Steenhuisen commented at the results center in Midrand, north of Johannesburg.
Since the historic 1994 vote that ended white minority rule, the ANC has won every national election. However, over the past decade, South Africa has experienced economic stagnation, rising unemployment and poverty, and deteriorating infrastructure, leading to regular power outages. These issues appear to have significantly influenced voter sentiment.
Speculation is now intense regarding which party or parties the ANC might approach to form a coalition and remain in government. Steenhuisen indicated that no coalition talks had yet begun, stating, “We’ve got to wait for the results to end before we can start with any major discussions but my first port of call is going to be with my Multi-Party Charter conference,” referring to an alliance of opposition parties formed before the election.
The uncertainty surrounding the formation of the next government has impacted the financial markets. Prices of South Africa’s main internationally traded government bonds fell by as much as 1.3 cents on the U.S. dollar, marking the third consecutive day of declines and leaving the bonds at their lowest level in almost a month.
Projections by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research indicate that the ANC will ultimately secure 40.5% of the vote when all results are in. The party’s performance is particularly poor in KwaZulu-Natal, where MK is leading with 44.1% compared to the ANC’s 18.8%, according to partial results.
Election officials have seven days to release full provisional results, but an announcement is expected by Sunday. A technical issue caused the results page on the electoral commission’s website to go blank for about two hours early on Friday, but the commission assured that the data remained intact and the result processing continued unaffected.
The final allocation of seats in the National Assembly, which will elect the next president, remains crucial. Despite the ANC’s poor showing, incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa could still be re-elected. However, this electoral outcome may provoke a leadership challenge within the ANC.
Investors and the business community have expressed concerns over the prospect of the ANC entering a coalition with the EFF, which advocates for the seizure of white-owned farms and the nationalization of mines and banks, or with Zuma’s MK, which also supports land confiscation. Steenhuisen has not ruled out a partnership to prevent what he has termed a “doomsday coalition” involving the ANC, EFF, and MK, despite the DA’s aim to oust the ruling party.
The potential coalition scenarios are causing unease among investors, who fear policy shifts that could destabilize the economy. Businesses are particularly wary of the EFF’s and MK’s radical economic proposals, which could affect investment flows and economic stability in South Africa. As the political landscape evolves, the focus will be on the coalition negotiations and their implications for the country’s future.
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