Will South Africa pay the political price as discontent rises?

As South Africa grapples with economic challenges, political discontent is on the rise, potentially spelling the end of the long-standing dominance of the African National Congress (ANC).

Since the end of apartheid in 1994, the ANC has been a formidable force in South African politics, winning consecutive elections and shaping the country’s trajectory. However, the post-apartheid period, marked by high hopes for economic prosperity and social equality, has seen setbacks and disappointments.

Economic growth, which peaked between 2004 and 2007, has faltered in recent years, accompanied by corruption scandals and a sense of unfulfilled promises. The tension within the ANC, evident in the removal of President Thabo Mbeki in 2008, reflects competing visions within the party, from Mandela’s ideals of reconciliation to Zuma’s promises of radical economic transformation.

Under President Zuma, South Africa faced its first post-apartheid recession, exacerbated by external factors, poor policies, and corruption. The country has been stuck in a cycle of sluggish growth, high poverty rates, unemployment, and crime. The mismanagement of state-owned enterprises like Transnet and Eskom has worsened the situation, with electricity shortages becoming a pressing issue.

As support for the ANC wanes amid economic and energy crises, the 2024 elections could usher in a new political era. However, the end of ANC dominance may lead to fragmentation and polarization, making coalition-building challenging and exacerbating political instability.

This scenario could further undermine economic prospects, deepen poverty, erode social cohesion, and diminish South Africa’s regional influence. To avoid this outcome, rapid and substantial reforms are necessary to address the root causes of discontent and revive the country’s economic prospects. Failure to do so could result in South Africa losing its regional power status and facing long-term instability.