Manufacturing Output in South Africa Falls for the Third Straight Month in January 2023
Manufacturing production in South Africa declined on an annual basis for the third month in January 2023, by 3.7% Y/Y. The figure below shows that this was a slight improvement over January’s 4.5% decrease and output was higher on a seasonally adjusted and monthly basis. The biggest contributors to the fall in output were the Petroleum, Chemical Products, Rubber and Plastic Products; the Motor Vehicles, Parts and Accessories and Other Transport Equipment; and the Basic Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metal Products, Metal Products and Machinery divisions. Eight of ten divisions declined, with only the Food and Beverages and Glass and Non-Metallic Mineral Products divisions recording declines. This sector is being hit hard by South Africa’s power crisis and will continue to struggle.
Manufacturing Production in South Africa from February 2022 – January 2023 (Y/Y%)
Data Source: Statistics South Africa
Mining Continues its Slump but Mineral Sales Recover in January 2023
Mining Output & Mineral Sales for South Africa from February 2022 – January 2023 (Y/Y %)
Mining output decreased for the 12th month in January 2023, falling 1.9% Y/Y, but continued growing on a seasonally adjusted and monthly basis, by 4.4%. This was also the smallest decline since production began falling last year. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) and Diamonds, each declined by more than 15% compared to February 2022, and were the biggest contributors to the fall, subtracting 3.5% and 0.9% from output, respectively. Overall, half of the mineral groups saw declines in output.
Power outages are hurting Mining, as it is Manufacturing, but what is equally a problem for the industry is the dilapidated state of South Africa’s railways and ports. The industry and South Africa as a whole have been unable to fully realise the benefits of the post-COVID-19 “mini” commodities boom as it cannot move enough of its production to ports for export. However, the value of minerals sold grew for the first time since October 2022, by 6.8% Y/Y to R63.98 billion, even though it continued its long-running monthly decline, falling by 7.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Nine out of twelve mineral groups recorded higher sales, with only sales of Manganese, PGMs and Nickel declining.
Data Source: Statistics South Africa
Retail Sales Decline for the Second Month in January 2023
Retail sales in South Africa declined for the second month in January 2023 in the figure below, by
0.8% Y/Y compared to a fall of 0.5% the previous month. This is the largest decline since June 2022 and is the fourth decrease in five months. Of the seven groups of retailers, only General Dealers and Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Leather Goods grew sales, with the rest of the groups recording declines. The largest negative contributors were retailers in Food, Beverages and Tobacco and Specialised Stores, whose sales fell 7.3% and Hardware, Paint and Glass, which saw sales drop 4.8%.
Retail Sales in South Africa from February 2022 – January 2023 (Y/Y %)
Data Source: Statistics South Africa
Wholesale Sales Drop for the Fourth Consecutive Month in February 2023
The figure below shows that South Africa’s wholesale sales decreased on an annual basis for the fourth month in January 2023, by 3.6% Y/Y, its worst decline since April 2022. Nevertheless, on a seasonally adjusted and monthly basis, wholesale sales were up by 0.4% after declining by more than 3% in December 2022.
Wholesale Sales in South Africa from February 2022 – March 2023 (Y/Y %)
Data Source: Statistics South Africa
… Meanwhile in Other News
Botswana: Inflation slowed for the second month in February 2023, from 9.3% to 9.1% Y/Y. It was the second consecutive month that inflation was below 10% as food inflation rose from 17.2% to 17.3%, but transport inflation declined significantly, from 15.4% to 14.3% Y/Y. (Statistics Botswana)
Malawi: Inflation accelerated from 25.9% to 26.7% Y/Y in February 2023. It was the second month that inflation was higher than the previous month and the ninth month of above 20% inflation. (National Statistical Office of Malawi).
Mauritius: January 2023 saw a trade deficit of MUR11.5billion as imports declined by 1.3% to
MUR19.1 billion and exports surged by 13.3% to MUR7.5 billion. The deficit was MUR1.2 billion smaller than in January 2022, but 39.9% smaller than the MUR19.2 billion deficit registered in December 2022. (Statistics Mauritius)
Namibia: Inflation rose for the second month in February 2023, from 7.0% to 7.2% Y/Y. On the other hand, food inflation was steady at 14.0% and transport inflation slowed from 11.1% to 9.9%. As most other countries are seeing inflation slow, it will be interesting to see if Namibia’s inflation rate continues to go in the opposite direction. (Namibian Statistics Agency)
Rwanda: The economy continued to perform excellently, surging by 8.2% in 2022, after posting growth of 10.9% in 2021. (National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda)
Sao Tome and Principe: Inflation continued to rise, but at a slower pace in January 2023, 25.5% vs. 25.2%. It was the fifth month that inflation was over 20%. (Central Bank of Sao Tome and Principe)
Senegal: Exports surged 39.9% to XOF378 billion and imports rose just 5.4% to XOF587 billion to yield a trade deficit of XOF209 billion in January 2023. This was the smallest deficit since February 2022 and less than half the size of the shortfall in December 2022. (National Agency of Statistics and Demography, Senegal)
Somalia: Prices rose by 5.4% Y/Y in February 2023, slower than 5.7% previously, as transport inflation slowed from 2.3% to 0% and food inflation decelerated from 6.7% to 5.4%. (Directorate of National Statistics, Somalia)
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